| When was the current long-range forecast system implemented? | December 1st, 2011 |
|---|---|
| Is it a coupled forecast system? | Yes |
| Is it a Tier-2 forecast system? | No |
| Atmospheric model resolution | T63 (64x128 gaussian native grid). Date is sent on the 2.5 deg lat-long grid. |
| Ocean model (if applicable) | OGCM4 uses a z-level vertical coordinate, with horizontal differencings formulated on an Arakawa B-Grid. It was developed from the NCAR CSM Ocean Model (NCOM). There are 40 vertical levels with spacings ranging from 10m near the surface (there are 16 levels in the upper 200m) to nearly 400m in the deep ocean. Horizontal coordinates are spherical with grid spacings approximately 1.41 degrees in longitude and 0.94 degrees in latitude. |
| Source of atmospheric initial conditions | The CMC Global 4D-var analysis is assimilated. |
| Source of ocean initial conditions | CMC SST and sea-ice analysis at the surface and NCEP GODAS 3D ocean below the surface. In all cases, these analyses are assimilated; there’s no cold start directly from them. |
| If Tier-2, what is the source of SST predictions? | N/A |
| Hindcast period | 1981-2010 |
| Ensemble size for the hindcasts | 10 CanCM3 members + 10 CanCM4 members |
| How is the hindcast ensemble configured? | For each month of the hindcast, a 12-month forecast is produced. There is no lagged initial conditions, all the 20 members start on the first of the month. |
| Ensemble size for the forecast | 20 members, 10 for each model |
| How is the forecast ensemble configured? | Every month, a 12-month forecast is produced. There is no lagged initial conditions, all the 20 members start on the first of the month. |
| Length of forecasts | 12 months |
| Data format |
Experimental GRIB1 pushed to LC-LRFMME ftp site. Operational GRIB2 also available at http://weather.gc.ca/grib/grib2_cansips_e.html |
| What is the latest date predicted anomalies for the next month/season become available? | The forecasts will be available every first day of the month. There’s a possibility for a 6-month forecast issued on the 15th of each month starting sometime in 2013. |
| How are the forecast anomalies constructed? | By subtracting the ensemble forecast mean from the hindcast mean. |
| URL where forecast are displayed | http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html |
| Point of Contact | R&D : Dr. Bertrand Denis (Bertrand.denis@ec.gc.ca) Operational implementation: Mr. Benoit Archambault (benoit.archambault@ec.gc.ca) |
