| When was the current long-range forecast system implemented? | System name: GloSea5 Implemented: June 2013 |
|---|---|
| Is it a coupled forecast system? | Yes |
| Is it a Tier-2 forecast system? | No |
| Atmospheric model resolution | 0.83 lat x 0.56 long x 85 levels |
| Ocean model (if applicable) | NEMO: 0.25 lat x 0.25 lon 75 levels |
| Source of atmospheric initial conditions | ERA-interim for the period 1993-2015 and Met Office NWP operational analyses from 2010 to present |
| Source of ocean initial conditions | Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (NEMOVAR) |
| If Tier-2, what is the source of SST predictions? | N/A |
| Hindcast period | 1993-2015 |
| Ensemble size for the hindcasts | 28 members (from 4 different start dates, see below) |
| How is the hindcast ensemble configured? | Lagged approach, 3 member per start date on the 1st, 9th, 17th and 25th of each calendar month. All 3 member share the same initial conditions and differ only due to schemes to represent model uncertainties |
| Ensemble size for the forecast | 42 |
| How is the forecast ensemble configured? | Lagged approach, 14 member per start date (every Monday). All 14 members share the same initial conditions and differ only due to schemes to represent model uncertainties |
| Length of forecasts | 6 months |
| Data format | GRIB 1 |
| What is the latest date predicted anomalies for the next month/season become available? | 13th of the month |
| How are the forecast anomalies constructed? | Departures from the model climate estimated by the hindcast integrations |
| URL where forecast are displayed | http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks |
| Point of Contact |
Richard Graham (richard.graham@metoffice.gov.uk) |
