| When was the current long-range forecast system implemented? | System name: GloSea6 Implemented: Feb 2021 |
|---|---|
| Is it a coupled forecast system? | Yes |
| Is it a Tier-2 forecast system? | No |
| Atmospheric model resolution | N216L85(≒60km) |
| Ocean model (if applicable) | NEMO: 0.25 lat x 0.25 lon 75 levels |
| Source of atmospheric initial conditions | ERA-interim for the period 1993-2016 and Met Office NWP operational analyses from 2010 to present |
| Source of ocean initial conditions | Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (NEMOVAR) |
| If Tier-2, what is the source of SST predictions? | N/A |
| Hindcast period | 1993-2016 |
| Ensemble size for the hindcasts | 28 members (from 4 different start dates, see below) |
| How is the hindcast ensemble configured? | Lagged approach, 7 member per start date on the 1st, 9th, 17th and 25th of each calendar month. All 7 member share the same initial conditions and differ only due to schemes to represent model uncertainties |
| Ensemble size for the forecast | 42 |
| How is the forecast ensemble configured? | Lagged approach, 2 member per start date (daily). Both members share the same initial conditions and differ only to schemes to represent model uncertainties. The forecast is represented by 42 members comprising 21 days of forecasts up to and including 10th of each month. |
| Length of forecasts | 6 months |
| Data format | GRIB 1 |
| What is the latest date predicted anomalies for the next month/season become available? | 13th of the month |
| How are the forecast anomalies constructed? | Departures from the model climate estimated by the hindcast integrations |
| URL where forecast are displayed | http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks |
| Point of Contact |
Peter J. McLean (peter.mclean@metoffice.gov.uk) |
